Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 14.352989 16.327667 18.611573 21.481766 25.040961 29.376753 35.166534
2025-02-16 12.088759 14.586187 17.746842 22.155858 28.349423 37.087870 51.076793
2025-02-23 10.562493 13.213332 16.763554 22.070390 30.208703 43.041666 66.941039
2025-03-02 9.485339 12.190873 15.973964 21.946052 31.792841 48.908441 85.728423
2025-03-09 8.762124 11.525524 15.537270 22.188053 33.920759 56.367009 112.722091
2025-03-16 7.958224 10.635381 14.624124 21.470207 34.160209 60.291886 134.888269
2025-03-23 7.440128 10.103525 14.178223 21.429014 35.600764 67.286130 172.944019
2025-03-30 6.825761 9.364343 13.314725 20.512228 35.088296 69.598660 198.929475
2025-04-06 6.261987 8.656538 12.430616 19.431175 34.002396 70.106619 219.412368
2025-04-13 5.812984 8.095055 11.736585 18.610768 33.314091 71.474202 246.973738
2025-04-20 5.918863 8.417993 12.551202 20.768250 39.863510 97.375322 488.470586
2025-04-27 5.750199 8.278536 12.548616 21.305507 42.732868 113.994024 779.526725
2025-05-04 5.360791 7.760819 11.853208 20.367205 41.714587 116.260373 949.154072
2025-05-11 5.214015 7.641612 11.870304 20.958114 45.064046 139.777545 1925.183528
2025-05-18 4.995445 7.382881 11.603046 20.880304 46.501993 156.590431 3668.265795
2025-05-25 4.792480 7.136986 11.337094 20.765521 47.815657 174.817352 8506.734930
2025-06-01 4.645310 6.978516 11.223489 20.988840 50.312785 204.330036 50527.398110
2025-06-08 4.414084 6.657160 10.766648 20.326157 49.644598 212.236618 302149.207799
2025-06-15 4.266174 6.476591 10.574092 20.288106 51.188669 240.206925 NaN
2025-06-22 4.047162 6.156617 10.081225 19.440573 49.558873 239.809524 NaN
2025-06-29 3.826459 5.824662 9.546612 18.439497 47.163222 230.511711 NaN
2025-07-06 3.642444 5.552557 9.119640 17.678532 45.553861 227.732346 NaN
2025-07-13 3.731055 5.782349 9.728932 19.677386 55.485445 374.854078 NaN